Going thru the HC sessions and
seeing some crazy shit going on........ Crazy shit – I have had my trading described in a lot of different ways before – but that’s a first J So what are you seeing – 2 trades done that you are calling no initial reverse which actually isn’t the case – the trades are done with the initial reverse BUT there is no initial base setup for sure – only the reverse which was traded – do keep in mind on that buy at 787.20 IF I had only bought the reject before the reverse the buy would have been more like 786.40. This initial reverse – initial base distinction is important because since a trade was done there must be some additional setup components different than what we refer to as method base AND especially that I never describe similar trades as base setups. So to begin with on your review are you clear about the open buy-buy addon and could you-did you do those – trades that were referred to as base – if you want more details on those besides from your transcript the trade journal from that day does have the open chart-trades on it. See Chart-Discussion Below What is also interesting to me – in general I will get more questions about trades like you were asking about –vs- base method-selective method trades done BUT then I also find out that those trades weren’t done. I think the base setups and what is more-less selective about them in terms of setup components has to been understood at the beginning –vs- the trades which are more of an exception – it is the best-most profitable way to start AND really it is going to be completely overwhelming to try to understand what is behind a situational exception until the basics are understood --- is it break2 with mex flow OR is break2 with mex flow WITH a start point of paa price resistance and the break1 high-low a paa price so the entry has a reject-failure component INTO a left side diagonal WITH a resumption of directional strength. I might not do all break2 with mex flow for various reasons – consolidation most prevalent – BUT I will do the selective base. Nice....I've seen this time and again where the setups and entries are based upon action at the PAA's, (i.e. shift-reject and expected move to the other side of the price pair-which seems to often occur?????) and potential breakout to the next level. Our method is base on price movement at prices where there was previous price action – having observed many many times that repeated reactions at these same prices occur again – specifically when there is a reject-failure combination at the prices. My favorite setups will always be what I described above regarding the more selective base setup – I get to take a base method setup-entry pattern AND include paa prices with it. btw - i need help with defining significant price pairs... Besides answering any specific questions that you want to discuss – I need to refer to you to the best resources we have --- the traderead 8 and 9-10 price seminars specifically include this AND here is a basic study page that I wrote for the group: http://www.tradingpriceaction.com/ Then the references to the paa prices posted in the chatroom in the morning from the 240t chart and from previous days-overnight – some of these also become referred to in posted trades – trade journal discussions. I would suggest that you understand my chatroom posts on these AND ask any specific questions if not - the best thing to have done would be to have selected some of your own prices to compare with these AND then you could also ask a question if you have a price that I don’t mention. Anyway, the buy at 787.2 is "wild" to me. What do we have here: shift-reject of the o/night low, break 1 of 787.1 shift line sync'd with 120t shift-line, mex flow screaming up and left-side potential break of support sync. This kind of trading blows my mind - it could only be done by someone who understands why this price action will continue!
See
Chart-Discussion Below I want you to go back and read what you wrote in your description above in the paragraph where you mention you see this time and again – shift-reject BUT nothing about price failure – it’s the combination that is the typical differential for the breakouts to occur [typical meaning anticipated –vs- random breakouts which also do occur sometimes]. What is being missed – reject-failure isn’t being considered AND that trades aren’t being entered on break1. I rarely take a break1 trade – if I am in the chatroom and one of them occurs it is a time that I give more written discussion about the trade because it is the exception AND you have no doubt heard me refer to it as a bad trade OR even seen me write chase-without setup --- meaning what – that I had no base setup to enter and went ahead and did that break to see if I could get enough more movement to a partial-at least stay above my initial risk AND inherent in that trade is also a willingness to reverse. Think about this – not much basis for the trade – again the exception. I suppose also inherent in someone who is a continuous trader – that being said I would suggest that I have a higher percentage of trades that are method base than most traders I have seen posted in general – especially if it’s continuous trading-posting –vs- selective AND if the market gives a trading situation where I can’t continuous trade – I also either price hold an open trade above sup-res being used AND wait for the more selective setup.
So
again I would that what is being missed is the reject-failure
concept –vs- reject and probably right side indicator reverse
only. This is something that I would really like you to get
ingrained into your thinking. I see you working hard – asking
very intuitive questions that also show a lot of time-study being
spent on the resources available to you AND even going back
through hotcomm transcripts to look back at posts and make charts
of them to study --- BUT thinking of reject-reverse –vs-
reject-failure reverse. I also suggest that you really look for
these words reject and failure OR reject-failure when reading the
trade journals. How about a question with a question - why do some method base setups lose AND some are awesome WITH partial profit expansion and also profitable addons? It happens BUT what is the key - that it works more than it doesn't work AND the average gain from when it works is bigger than the loss - which is the case from method base setups. Regarding your question AND trying to give an answer - consider when most crown patterns occur - they come as a higher low after a pmd low OR a lower high after a pmd high --- so in method context the setups that we are looking for are: (1) a pmd swing-reverse setup (2) a price hold that instead of reversing - resumes direction with a pmd failure-continuation. So when do the majority of what you see fail occur - is it a counter reverse where the reverse is right above left side support or resistance - the price specific that holds? AND when do the majority of what you call awesome occur - is it when the pmd extreme is also at left side support-resistance WHICH is synched with the bigger direction? so besides that right side pmd swing-reverse setup - you also have a resumption of left side direction from a key price start point as the reject AND through the left side diagonal from the move to the start point-pmd extreme. read this situation described above AND then re-read my description above regarding method base selective AND what i mentioned was my favorite setup - is it break2 with mex flow OR is break2 with mex flow WITH a start point of paa price resistance and the break1 high-low a paa price so the entry has a reject-failure component INTO a left side diagonal WITH a resumption of directional strength. I might not do all break2 with mex flow for various reasons – consolidation most prevalent – BUT I will do the selective base --- do you recognize the similarity? besides these reasons for the pattern outcome - i would also point out another situation with price momentum divergences - they very often are a transition into extended consolidation as the move into the pmd is too strong to reverse BUT it also can't breakout and resume that direction - so instead it consolidates AND that crown pattern you are seeing is also a centerline reverse inside consolidation and nothing happens. Trade Journal 8/8/2007 open: where is the first initial base setup after the open - what-where were your open trades?
07:59:53 {tactrade} 78380-78340 center area green dot: do you recognize this as the first initial base setup OR when trading the open - are you just looking at the open bars? this is an open base setup trading the overnight setup pattern - the focus line break2 into-through the diagonal AND with overnight direction - AND as the centerline posted rejecting as support. before you may question mex flow on the break2 - realtime the fast chart would show the mex flow pinched - there is no issue about flow on the 120t. yellow dot - green dot2: green dot1 = +784.40f -785.30 p1| trail. nothing done at the yellow dot initial reverse AND then there was no initial base-first continuation setup - i continued to trail the open buy. the blue focus line held AND there was resumption BUT this too would have been an initial reverse right into the high as a double top - not base AND i didn't consider an addon here. when the green dot2 addon was done - that price where the yellow dot initial reverse was had shifted to a higher low WITH mex flow up AND on that reject - i bought into the triple break of the 2 blue squares WHICH was also read as a failure-break setup of the yellow line. this is a base addon setup = +785.30f AND on the breakout went to 786.60 r1 - getting 786.50 initial buy p2-addon p1. Email Chart-Trade Question 8/8/2007 Anyway, the buy at 787.2 is "wild" to me. What do we have here: shift-reject of the o/night low, break 1 of 787.1 shift line sync'd with 120t shift-line, mex flow screaming up and left-side potential break of support sync. This kind of trading blows my mind - it could only be done by someone who understands why this price action will continue! What is also interesting to me – in general I will get more questions about trades like you were asking about –vs- base method-selective method trades done BUT then I also find out that those trades weren’t done. I think the base setups and what is more-less selective about them in terms of setup components has to been understood at the beginning –vs- the trades which are more of an exception – it is the best-most profitable way to start AND really it is going to be completely overwhelming to try to understand what is behind a situational exception until the basics are understood --- is it break2 with mex flow OR is break2 with mex flow WITH a start point of paa price resistance and the break1 high-low a paa price so the entry has a reject-failure component INTO a left side diagonal WITH a resumption of directional strength. I might not do all break2 with mex flow for various reasons – consolidation most prevalent – BUT I will do the selective base. I also would guess that the questions come because there were profitable – IF I had losers on them would you have still asked the question OR thought – makes sense that you had losers taking trades like that? Do keep in mind that I recognize the setups traded in terms of method base –vs- price setup reverses – accepting the risk of the trade and would typically reverse back out of the trade with the next base setup – especially in the case of a resumption of direction from the previous swing – you saw that on the buy done after the support reject-initial reverse – resuming direction with the reverse after the counter sell.
paa prices: 07:51:11 {tactrade} above 78550 -- 78650 r-1 || 78850 8/3 hi - 78930 8/2 hi red dot: test-reject of yellow line 789.30 - break of dark blue line 788.50 - synch with initial reverse. BUT note the additional price action - how there is a retrace-test of the blue line before the 2nd high test-double resistance reject AND then how the trade is tried as a break of the test low-blue focus line - into-through the left side diagonal WITH the purple line area as the first target area. so again i won't call this an initial base setup WHICH would have occurred for instance if we could have gotten a break of the blue line and then a retrace-reject of the 788.50 area WITH mex flow down [remember our read of mex flow is its direction on retrace AFTER the ttm flip] - then we could have had a break2 with mex flow initial base. this didn't occur AND i tried the initial reverse through the break-failure of the blue line as an aggressive open period trade to reverse out of the buy done first. the trade worked very well - it was a price setup as described BUT a trade that very well could have broken that blue line by a couple of ticks and gone right back up - turning the trade into a loser AND a decision regarding going back long. this is an inherent acceptance in an initial reverse if done AND counter - the resumption back with direction would be viewed as a better setup than the counter. yellow dot - green dot: when i was commenting above about the buy i mentioned to note the trade location at 787.20 -vs- the yellow dot at 786.30|.40 - where i would have very much liked a setup to have occurred like breaking to the purple line AND the rejecting back to the area of the yellow line WHICH on that first move i would still be trailing the sell - THEN either giving a break2 with mex flow initial base in the area of the yellow dot OR a shift-reject of that to support AND a first continuation setup that could have included the failure-break of the purple line. none of this occurred AND i bought the break of the purple line with the initial reverse [mex flow is not a component - you mentioned in your question how it was screaming up BUT that is not our read - there is no mex flow up that we can read on a retrace into the trade] - the trade with a start point of a double bottom hold of the blue line which was also a test-reject of the yellow line overnight high as support AND with the initial directional move. so again i can explain the trade tried as an initial reverse WITH direction AFTER a double hold-reject of support - BUT you also see that i couldn't simply buy the reject below the purple line resistance AND against the direction of my current trade. AND again i have to refer to the outcome being good BUT the situation where the purple line could have broken by a few ticks - holding below the blue line which was now resistance AND both a losing trade with a reverse back into sell decision. NOTE: IF the yellow dot area buy had been available OR IF flat - i would have tried the blue dot as a base setup - the blue line break2 WITH mex flow up.
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