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Emini Day Trading - Trading Market Conditions And Market Types

 
Market Conditions

Considering market conditions, and how they relate to a given trade setup, is the primary basis for the discretionary decisions made when deciding to take the trade - what is referred to as trade setup filtering. 

The term market conditions refers to directional strength and to market type; they must be considered separately.

Directional Strength

Market directional strength:  referring to the market and a combination of both net change AND the making of higher lows or lower highs.  A market that has a net change of -1% from a gap down open, and then goes into consolidation instead of making lower lows and expanding that net change - does not have the same strength as a market that is down .5% AND continually 'stair steps' lower, with each test of the low breaking to lower lows, and each retrace going to lower highs.

Swing directional strength:  referring to the strength of the left side swing -vs- actual market direction.  This is especially considered when market direction quits expanding, or in the case of a 2-way market where price is moving with the same basic 'ease' in both directions.

Directional Strength Trading Considerations

Our strongest trading environment would be when both swing strength and market strength is in synch, consider these two scenarios: 

(1) there is a strong left side move down AND the market direction is down and has been continuing, then there is a fast chart indicator reverse that resumes back with directional strength.  If there weren't additional setup components that 'allowed' the counter trade it wouldn't have been done, but when the directional trade reverses back, that trade is entered on the initial trigger of the base resumption setup. 

(2) there is a strong left side move up AND the market direction is up and has been continuing, then there is a price momentum divergence that 'leads' price into consolidation, but price remains above a price support point so the trade is not exited.  The market then resumes it's up move again in what we refer to as a pmd-failure continuation, and based on the combination of market direction-swing direction, an addon trade is done.

Market Type

Market type first refers to direction and whether a given trade setup would be traded as a directional trade or a counter trade to that direction.  As noted above, the stronger the combination of market direction and swing direction, the more aggressive we can be with trade entry, including initial entries and addon trades. 

Market type also refers to continuation -vs- congestion - think of this visually as the slope of the market, where a continuation market has diagonal slope, and a congestion market moves sideway and without slope.  The 'best' swing continuation is when the market continues to make higher highs-higher lows or lower lows-lower highs AND each retrace holds the area of the previous break. 

IF congestion refers to sideways movement, thus without continuation, then it would stand to reason that this market type would be of the biggest problems we have for trading.  Do note however, that it isn't congestion itself that is the problem, it is the width of the congestion range, and the price movement inside that range.  The differing nature of sideways movement has caused me to consider congestion types, instead of simply viewing all sideways movement as congestion.  There are specific characteristics that are related to these different congestion types with regards to the tradeability of the period, and the related setups that would be used.

Congestion Types

We will consider 3 types of 'congestion':  (1) congestion (2) consolidation (3) compression

Market Type Transition

A market type transition refers to the change, or transition, from one market type to another.

This is a VERY important method concept - when you think about the implications of a transition you understand the significance - because with the transition becomes the necessity to make an adjustment to how you are trading.

Market type transitions to consider:

  • direction - 'congestion'

  • direction - counter direction

  • 'congestion' - continuation

  • 2-way - direction

 
 
Congestion

Congestion isn't a problem by definition, and some congestion markets are very tradeable - the issue is the width of the congestion AND the price movement inside of that width.

Characteristics of tradeable congestion:

  • a 2-way market [meaning price moves as 'easily' up as it does down] BUT does since it keeps moving back and forth the market remains in a congestion range -vs- continuing and expanding one direction.

  • range width is wide enough so that a centerline trade that tests either extreme is able to gain a base partial profit.

  • price movement is continuous AND with base setup-pattern.  For instance a base setup - break2 entry WITH mex flow on the retrace -vs- random chop AND momentum-mex zero line 'braiding'.

  • NOTE:  watch for a market transition - either into tighter width AND 'choppier' movement OR into continuation.

 

Congestion Trading Scenario

Here is a scenario regarding the over trading of non-setup trades inside of congestion - congestion which is virtually non-tradeable.  Can you relate to this - the overtrading of non-setup trades because you are afraid that you might miss something BUT instead accumulate losses AND do end up missing a winning trade that you don't do - which also happens to be the only base setup that occurred? 

Characteristics of non-tradeable congestion:

  • understand the actual price movement - you will see 'small' and overlapping bars with no pattern

  • this will occur in a tight area where there isn't enough movement for mex to approach either extreme

  • mex and momentum will 'braid' the zero line - that is they will continue to 'flip' back and forth

Trading psychology considerations:

  • fear of missing a winning trade being the basis for a trade -vs- setup

  • outcome of this fear AND the implications of trading non-base and losing - how this will effect you when there is a base setup available

   

yellow dot1-2:  break1 pivot trade - there is no setup in either case.

yellow dot3:  after the pivot sell goes to a higher low holding the purple line - you reverse again on what you are viewing as a break2 entry. This may be a line break2 BUT there is no trade setup - there is no combination ttm flip back green WITH a retrace into the trade where mex is flowing up.

dark blue dot:  3 non-setup losers in a row - want to make it 4 in a row?  NO WAY.  BUT this is actually a base setup - IF you had been viewing the price movement on a slower chart for clarity - the recommended thing to do inside of 'congestion chop'.  On that chart this is a break2 entry AND that retrace was WITH mex flow up - AND for continuation there was the diagonal to trade into/through.

blue dot:  after the 3 losers also caused you not to 'see' a base setup that you then become aware of - you chase the trade and buy the breakout of the swing high - which holds the range AND you get another non-setup losing trade.

Congestion Selectivity

Remember that we aren't discussing base setups - we are discussing selectivity AND a way of taking a crap chart AND adding additional setup components to 'find' a potential trade - AND 'avoiding' as much congestion trading as possible. 

We can't 'see' inside a chart like this, or many [most] of the congestion-consolidation trading period that we get UNLESS we are specifically looking for something that we have already defined. 

  • taking a left side price AND bringing it right as a focus line

  • wait until the right side setup is a break2 at the same location

  • AND with 2 prior breaks to trade into/through

  • WITH the 'best' setups including a reject of a price specific - this combination giving a reject-failure component.

yellow line:  take to the right side as a focus line

dark blue line1:  the top dark blue line is right side relevant as the high before break1 of the yellow line BUT it is chart significant as a left side price specific - this gives this reject as an additional selectivity component.

A:  on the line drawing it is shown as a lower high/on the actual chart it is a double hold - these are both rejects of the dark blue line.

dark blue dots:  these 2 dots are the prior breaks of the yellow line that is being traded into/through - what i have referred to as an inverted diagonal.  the significance of the inverted triple diagonal OR triple diagonal - is that these are diagonal breakout points -vs- a horizontal line breakout.

dark blue line2:  the bottom dark blue line is the congestion range low - additionally significant as a breakdown area from the previous day - this gives another breakout area that is being traded into. 

B:  always note mex flow on your retraces - a reject-failure combination includes mex flow down on the retrace-retest of the reject price - in this case the top dark blue line/or the lower high A in the line drawing.

Consolidation

There is an important distinction to be made between congestion and consolidation - where consolidation is viewed as a congestion period BUT at the extreme of a previous price move.  As price 'can't' continued it's directional move, but also that move is 'too strong' to reverse, price transitions into consolidation.

green dot1 - green dot2:  left side trade setups included an initial buy, and an addon buy - note that the addon is a price break setup of the dark blue line, which was a previous left side price action area price.

transition:  this market transition is typical - where a directional move 'stops' as a price momentum divergence at a resistance point [OR support if direction was down].

yellow dots:  after the pmd high, price moves side ways between resistance AND a support point, which in this example is the area of the dark blue line shifting from left side resistance to right side support. 

this movement to the right of the vertical line is a transition from direction to consolidation - not considering this situation in your trading decisions, and instead only attempting to trade 'right side', tends to be quite futile likely leading to a series of 'consolidation overtrading losses' AND then the 'missing' of a consolidation break setup.

Market Type Transition

Direction-Consolidation | Consolidation-Direction

You are long in a strong up market, but price hits a significance left side resistance price from a prior day AND there is a price momentum divergence at that price - there is then a retrace from this point which breaks your trailing 'stop' and you go flat.  The market now 'transitions' into consolidation.

yellow line - dark blue dot:  left side price that has been extended into this chart - do not sell the dot with the indicator reverse 'right into' this key price that has NOT been setup to break

yellow dot - blue dot:  after the pmd high you do not do the counter trade at the yellow dot BUT do sell the blue dot as a first continuation trade - right into the yellow line which hits-holds as a double bottom.

IF you take this trade - you take some 'heat' AND end up with a winning trade BUT the blue dot isn't a 'base' first continuation setup because of the yellow line support.  NOTE:  the purple rectangle - there is nothing to do at that line test regardless of whether there was an indicator reverse.  no buy AND no exit on the first hit-test of this line [do determine the amount you would let the line break before going flat].

red dot:  this sell is the base consolidation entry - a shift-reject of the blue line as resistance WITH the break2 of the dark blue focus line WHEN the yellow line has been setup to fail as a triple bottom break.

   

yellow line pmd low - yellow dot:  the left side directional move again went into consolidation after a pmd - this time between the pmd low AND the floor number as resistance.  i would not buy the yellow dot - regardless that it is a right side base setup at the time - the decision being related to doing a counter-consolidation trade at resistance.

green dot1:  this became the buy - BUT isn't this also a trade right at resistance - the trade that wasn't done at the yellow dot?  NO - there is a method difference where this setup is now a price failure setup since it's through 2 setup points -vs- a price break setup of only 1 setup point.

red dot:  this trade was done as an attempt to resume the previous sell.  it is an initial trade entry BUT with room to support at the floor number-blue line.

green dot2:  support holds AND there is another reverse through the dark blue line BUT instead of buying an initial reverse - the trade is done when the dark blue line shifts to support AND still with the momentum of the initial reverse.  this move resumes the consolidation transition into buy AND continues to the blue square.

 
 
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