Considering market conditions, and how they relate to a given trade setup, is the primary basis for the discretionary decisions made when deciding to take the trade - what is referred to as trade setup filtering. The term market conditions refers to directional strength and to market type; they must be considered separately. Directional Strength Market directional strength: referring to the market and a combination of both net change AND the making of higher lows or lower highs. A market that has a net change of -1% from a gap down open, and then goes into consolidation instead of making lower lows and expanding that net change - does not have the same strength as a market that is down .5% AND continually 'stair steps' lower, with each test of the low breaking to lower lows, and each retrace going to lower highs. Swing directional strength: referring to the strength of the left side swing -vs- actual market direction. This is especially considered when market direction quits expanding, or in the case of a 2-way market where price is moving with the same basic 'ease' in both directions. Directional Strength Trading Considerations Our strongest trading environment would be when both swing strength and market strength is in synch, consider these two scenarios: (1) there is a strong left side move down AND the market direction is down and has been continuing, then there is a fast chart indicator reverse that resumes back with directional strength. If there weren't additional setup components that 'allowed' the counter trade it wouldn't have been done, but when the directional trade reverses back, that trade is entered on the initial trigger of the base resumption setup. (2) there is a strong left side move up AND the market direction is up and has been continuing, then there is a price momentum divergence that 'leads' price into consolidation, but price remains above a price support point so the trade is not exited. The market then resumes it's up move again in what we refer to as a pmd-failure continuation, and based on the combination of market direction-swing direction, an addon trade is done. Market Type Market type first refers to direction and whether a given trade setup would be traded as a directional trade or a counter trade to that direction. As noted above, the stronger the combination of market direction and swing direction, the more aggressive we can be with trade entry, including initial entries and addon trades. Market type also refers to continuation -vs- congestion - think of this visually as the slope of the market, where a continuation market has diagonal slope, and a congestion market moves sideway and without slope. The 'best' swing continuation is when the market continues to make higher highs-higher lows or lower lows-lower highs AND each retrace holds the area of the previous break. IF congestion refers to sideways movement, thus without continuation, then it would stand to reason that this market type would be of the biggest problems we have for trading. Do note however, that it isn't congestion itself that is the problem, it is the width of the congestion range, and the price movement inside that range. The differing nature of sideways movement has caused me to consider congestion types, instead of simply viewing all sideways movement as congestion. There are specific characteristics that are related to these different congestion types with regards to the tradeability of the period, and the related setups that would be used. Congestion Types We will consider 3 types of 'congestion': (1) congestion (2) consolidation (3) compression Market Type Transition A market type transition refers to the change, or transition, from one market type to another. This is a VERY important method concept - when you think about the implications of a transition you understand the significance - because with the transition becomes the necessity to make an adjustment to how you are trading. Market type transitions to consider: Congestion isn't a problem by definition, and some congestion markets are very tradeable - the issue is the width of the congestion AND the price movement inside of that width.
Congestion Trading Scenario Here is a scenario regarding the over trading of non-setup trades inside of congestion - congestion which is virtually non-tradeable. Can you relate to this - the overtrading of non-setup trades because you are afraid that you might miss something BUT instead accumulate losses AND do end up missing a winning trade that you don't do - which also happens to be the only base setup that occurred? Characteristics of non-tradeable congestion:
Trading psychology considerations:
Congestion Selectivity Remember that we aren't discussing base setups - we are discussing selectivity AND a way of taking a crap chart AND adding additional setup components to 'find' a potential trade - AND 'avoiding' as much congestion trading as possible.
Consolidation There is an important distinction to be made between congestion and consolidation - where consolidation is viewed as a congestion period BUT at the extreme of a previous price move. As price 'can't' continued it's directional move, but also that move is 'too strong' to reverse, price transitions into consolidation.
Direction-Consolidation | Consolidation-Direction You are long in a strong up market, but price hits a significance left side resistance price from a prior day AND there is a price momentum divergence at that price - there is then a retrace from this point which breaks your trailing 'stop' and you go flat. The market now 'transitions' into consolidation.
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